Food Inflation Jumps as Fuel Price Surge Deepens Hardship in Nigeria

Nigeria’s rising cost of living has worsened as food inflation climbed sharply in February 2026, amid persistent increases in fuel and energy prices.

Latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that food inflation rose to 12.12 percent in February, up from 8.89 percent recorded in January. The increase was driven by higher prices of key staples including beans, cassava, yam flour, millet flour, crayfish, okazi leaves, and ogbono.

Despite the surge in food prices, headline inflation recorded a marginal decline, easing slightly to 15.06 percent in February from 15.10 percent in January. However, on a month-on-month basis, inflation accelerated to 2.01 percent, compared to -2.88 percent in the previous month, indicating a faster pace of price increases.

The rise in food inflation coincides with a nationwide spike in petrol prices, which have climbed as high as N1,330 per litre in recent weeks, up from between N875 and N900 earlier in the year. The increase follows adjustments in ex-depot prices by Dangote Refinery, which raised its gantry price to N1,175 per litre, triggering corresponding hikes across retail outlets.

Major marketers, including MRS and Optima, have since increased pump prices in Abuja to about N1,267 and N1,270 per litre, respectively, while outlets operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and other independent marketers now sell petrol between N1,261 and N1,330 per litre. The development has led to a sharp rise in transportation costs nationwide.

Economic experts say the uptick in food prices may partly reflect seasonal trends. Economist Ayo Teriba explained that food prices typically moderate in January before rising in February as economic activities pick up after the holiday period.

He noted that while the recent increase may signal short-term volatility, it is too early to conclude whether it marks the beginning of a sustained inflationary trend. Teriba also expressed concerns over inconsistencies in inflation data, following previous revisions by the NBS.

Similarly, Professor Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University said the slight decline in headline inflation offers little relief to households. According to him, the marginal drop is largely statistical and does not reflect real improvements in living conditions.

Oyedokun warned that rising food prices remain a major concern, as they directly affect household purchasing power, particularly among low- and middle-income earners. He attributed the increase to structural challenges such as high energy costs, insecurity in farming regions, poor logistics, and post-harvest losses.

He described the situation as “cost-push inflation,” where increased production and distribution costs are transferred to consumers.

The economist called for urgent policy interventions, including improved security in agricultural areas, increased investment in storage and transportation infrastructure, and targeted support to reduce energy and logistics costs within the food supply chain.

He stressed that sustainable inflation control would require coordinated fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms, alongside policies that directly improve household welfare and food accessibility.

The development comes as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on an official visit to the United Kingdom at the invitation of King Charles III.